While the world took a record time to create Corona vaccines, the process of distributing vaccines and vaccinating the entire world seems to be prolonged, amid concerns about the negative impact of individuals receiving more than one type of vaccine, in what is known as mixing vaccines.
It is believed that Europe and the United States will be able to overcome the difficulties and slow pace of launching the “Covid” vaccine, but concerns about new mutated strains of the virus may prompt governments to amend vaccination protocols in order to speed up the distribution of the vaccine, according to a report by The National Interest of America published with permission from Stratfor Worldview.
Mixing vaccines is a problem
Dosing changes, skipping doses or mixing vaccines are all high-risk endeavors; Because it would impede data collection and analysis of vaccine efficacy in relevant ongoing studies. Nevertheless, a change in these vaccination protocols is necessary to increase immunization rates, as policymakers scramble to achieve herd immunity and end the epidemic.
It is also likely that vaccination rates will face a buffer once the skeptics from the wider population begin to postpone receiving the vaccine in the following waves of vaccination.
A review of the global H1N1 vaccination campaign (swine flu) in 2009 indicates that logistical problems, along with communication and mobilization with health care workers, will be key to determining the pace of launching the emerging coronavirus vaccine.
Similar to the current “Covid-19” campaign, the swine flu vaccination campaign has also started in the developed world as a result of the accelerated development efforts stimulated by the WHO declaration that it is a pandemic. The H1N1 vaccination campaign took months to overcome initial supply delays and confusion over who was eligible to receive the vaccine first.
The next review of the implementation of the vaccination campaign in the United States emphasized the need for future campaigns to “reduce promises, do more” in the delivery of vaccine doses, as well as improve communication in the field. But even these lessons learned, and training on vaccination campaigns, only help to a limited degree.
In fact, disjointed regional and federal guidelines, staff shortages, logistical difficulties, and the phased management process have already caused the Pfizer and Modena vaccines to be rolled out in the United States and Europe at a much slower pace than originally promised.
The mutated virus could push governments to unconventional ways to speed up vaccination
The current uncertainties surrounding new rapidly spreading mutations of the emerging coronavirus may tempt policymakers to find unconventional ways to accelerate vaccination such as mixing vaccines, even if that risks diminishing the effectiveness of the vaccine and undermining public confidence.
According to previous models, changing the vaccine delivery protocol would not be a feasible step. However, the recent emergence of two new mutations of the “SARS-Cove-2” virus in the United Kingdom and South Africa has led to an increase in calls for speeding up the launch of the vaccine in order to protect against the continued spread of the disease, and thus the possibility of further spread of mutated strains.
In order to quickly immunize larger sectors of its population, government officials may authorize a lengthening of the time between each dose and the next or allow the mixing of “Covid-19” vaccines from different developers (mixing vaccines). And even governments can forgo the second dose entirely.
However, such moves are likely to have negative consequences, especially mixing vaccines.
Fears of mixing vaccines / Reuters
The UK has already announced plans to extend the time between initial doses. Government officials have also stated that they may mix vaccines (that is, give someone a dose of Moderna vaccine, even if their first dose is a Pfizer vaccine) if the correct second dose is not available.
Because the current vaccines have issued emergency use permits, full tests and trials are still underway. Hence, it is not possible to know the extent of the effect that changing these protocols will have in the middle of the study, and under typical circumstances, this would take months of additional study, if not years. However, there is a high risk of reducing the effectiveness of the vaccine by changing the dose concentration or timing.
But even if solutions to logistical problems were found, population resistance would still be the primary factor limiting vaccination rates. This prolongs the time required to reach herd immunity. This, in turn, could provide the virus with more time to disrupt the global economy, as well as the possibility of another mutation in the virus that may render current treatments and vaccines ineffective. And thus it forces us to start the process over.
Numerous opinion polls across the United States and Europe indicate that there is a high level of suspicion regarding Covid-19 vaccines. Experts believe that between 50 to 85% of the population needs vaccination or immunity against “Covid-19” in order for the world to achieve herd immunity.
The unexpected consequences of changing the protocols could further undermine the public’s already low confidence in COVID-19 vaccines. Even when governments succeed in overcoming the initial obstacles to distribution, it is likely that vaccination rates will not see a significant rise over the next six months in the developed world. Which hinders the efforts made to eradicate the epidemic. This could force governments to consider mandatory vaccination requirements, which would be a risky and difficult political move in many countries, including the United States.
A survey by UK company YouGov in November indicated:
That 41% of the citizens of France are unwilling to receive a “Covid-19″ vaccine, and Spain and Sweden have witnessed low acceptance rates for the vaccine, while confidence in the United States has increased in recent weeks, but 40% of Americans are still either unwilling or hesitant. In getting the vaccine, according to Pew Research Center surveys.
When do we reach global herd immunity?
Since the start of the epidemic, the World Health Organization has said that low-income countries could be left behind in the race to vaccinate the world, and this warning was recently renewed with the delay in distributing vaccines to the third world.
It is a message that echoes in virologists’ warnings of the need to vaccinate large areas of the world to build some form of vaccination. Global herd immunity.
According to Dr. Benny Ward, a visiting professor of pharmaceutical medicine at Kings College London, even if the wealthier countries are vaccinated, there is a chance “if a new mutation emerges in strains circulating elsewhere that do not match the vaccine, there is a chance that an outbreak could occur in the population. Who have been vaccinated. ”
So far, 40 million vaccines have been distributed, and two Arab countries are in the lead
So far, 40 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been given, of which 12 million are in the United States, followed by 10 million in China, 4 million in the United Kingdom and 2 million in Israel, according to Our World in Data, a UK-based nonprofit organization. Keep track of vaccine statistics.
These numbers are equivalent to only 3% and 0.6% of the population of the United States and China, respectively.
Countries with the highest per capita share of vaccines are Israel (24%), Bahrain (16.8%), the United Arab Emirates (8.3%), and the United Kingdom (5.3%).
In the meantime, the European Union is trying to play a role in catching up, after it launched its launch on December 27, as some countries within the Union have proven more successful than others.
And those on the fringes of the continent are eager to introduce the vaccine, as many in the Balkans feel abandoned by their northern European neighbors.
Professor Dragan Danilovsky, a retired epidemiologist from North Macedonia, told ABC News: “Just as in the sinking of the Titanic, the wealthy have taken over all the lifeboats, leaving the less fortunate behind.” “We fell behind in the race, but did we have a fair chance? It is endemic global inequality,” ABC News quoted him as saying.
Israel is considered a world leader in vaccinations, but its program is not without controversy, especially its refusal to provide vaccinations to the prisoners and the Palestinian people under its occupation.
Among the latest contenders to join this race are Indonesia and India, where India’s comprehensive vaccination program will be the largest in the world as it seeks to reach more than 1.3 billion people, since it began its campaign this weekend, 244,000 people have been given a dose, according to Our World. .
When does the United States reach herd immunity?
Using basic epidemiological formulas, Dr. Zak Nair of Stat News estimated that it will take until May 2021 for the United States to achieve herd immunity, assuming that herd immunity can be achieved with a 75% immunization. But reaching herd immunity by May 2021 also assumes that 64% of the US population has already received the vaccination, and it is estimated that reducing US vaccinations by only 3%, reaching 61% of the population, will extend the period necessary to achieve the goal until July 2021. If only 39% of Americans are vaccinated, herd immunity will not be achieved in the United States until December 2022.